Research
Research
Long-form studies of the physical and financial systems behind economic cycles, with the data and sources shown.
2 papers
Infrastructure
The Valve: Where does scarcity become profit?
In a buildout, output is set by the scarcest input. We trace where that input sits, what it does to prices, and why the owner of the shortage is not always the one who is paid for it.
Market Risk
Bonds Are Not Rougher Than Stocks: Sixty years of volatility say the bond alarm is mostly a unit problem
Put in price terms, Treasury volatility is not unusual against stocks, and the ratio forecasts nothing about stocks. What matters for a 60/40 portfolio is the sign of the stock-bond correlation, and it is positive now.